Setting The Lines

The tightest call on the board sits at tight end, where Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft carry the exact same 8.0-point projection from News Hub Fantasy on opposite sides of the TE12 cutoff. Right behind that, Jayden Daniels and Bryce Young are tied at 17.5 points at quarterback, and three wide receivers — Caleb Douglas, Carnell Tate and DJ Moore — are all projected for 8.5 points around the WR36 line. No games this week are missing projections, so every matchup below is covered.

Quarterbacks: the line is QB12

Start: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, vs New England Patriots. His last two games (25 attempts each) ran below his season average of 34.1 attempts a game, and his touchdown output (0, then 1) has cooled from the 2-3 score games he posted in Weeks 5 and 7. His role looks steady rather than growing. The projection of 18.0 against an average matchup that allows 16.3 points per game to QBs keeps him in the top 12, but the recent dip makes this a start with less margin than his rank suggests.

Start: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints, vs Carolina Panthers. His Week 9 line of 35 attempts and 10 carries pushed his rushing workload well above his season average of 4.2 carries a game, a sign his involvement on the ground is growing even as his passing volume (38.5 attempts a game on the year) stays in line. The 18.0 projection against an average matchup allowing 17.2 points to QBs supports an every-week start.

Start: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders, at New York Giants. His Week 9 output of 35 attempts and 274 yards topped his season averages of 30.0 attempts and 208.3 yards, showing growth through the air, even though his rushing carries (4, then 2) have trailed his season rate of 5.2 a game the last two weeks. The 17.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 18.3 points to QBs is identical to Bryce Young's number one spot below him, making this the closest call at the position.

Sit: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers, at New Orleans Saints. His Week 9 line of 39 attempts and 276 yards sits almost exactly on his season averages of 38.5 attempts and 274.6 yards, a steady rather than rising workload. The 17.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 16.3 points to QBs matches Daniels' number exactly, and only the rank (13 versus 12) separates them — this is the first player cut from the start group.

Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cincinnati Bengals. His most recent game of 25 attempts and zero touchdowns came in below his season averages of 36.0 attempts and 1.6 touchdowns a game. The 16.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 16.9 points to QBs leaves him outside the top 12 with no recent signal pointing the other way.

Sit: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, at Arizona Cardinals. His last two games (228 and 157 yards) have run below his season average of 263.8 yards a game, even though this week's matchup is easy, allowing 21.8 points per game to QBs — the best matchup-grade of any quarterback here. That gap between fading recent usage and a favorable matchup makes this a tempting look, but with a 16.5 projection and a rank of 15, he stays on the bench in a 12-team format.

Running backs: the line is RB24

Start: Woody Marks, Houston Texans, at Cleveland Browns. His carries in the last four games (18, 19, 15, 15) have all come in above his season average of 11.9 a game, pointing to a role that is growing on the ground even as his receiving work (2.6 targets a game, 8% of the team's targets) stays modest. The 10.0 projection against an easy matchup allowing 22.0 points to RBs makes this an easy call to start.

Start: Rachaad White, Washington Commanders, at New York Giants. His carries have held close to his season average of 7.7 a game, a steady workload. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the team's most-used running back this season at 14.8 touches a game, is on Injured Reserve, which opens the door for more work. The 9.5 projection comes against a tough matchup allowing 17.2 points to RBs, but the vacated role is enough to start him.

Start: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders, vs Seattle Seahawks. His carries have slipped the last four games (6, 2, 8, 10) below his season average of 12.7 a game, but his targets have climbed, with a 22% target share in Week 9 above his season rate of 18%. That is usage pulling in two directions — rushing role shrinking, passing role growing — and it is the closest call among running backs this week. The 9.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 19.6 points to RBs is just enough to keep him started at the RB24 line.

Sit: Audric Estime, New Orleans Saints, vs Carolina Panthers. His 15 carries in Week 9 topped his season average of 12.0 a game, in a small two-game sample, and Travis Etienne Jr., the team's most-used back this season at 14.3 touches a game, remains on Injured Reserve. The 9.0 projection against an easy matchup allowing 25.6 points to RBs is appealing, and this is the sit call with the least separation from the starting group.

Sit: Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers, at Baltimore Ravens. His carries have stayed close to his season average of 12.8 a game, a steady workload without a recent jump. The 8.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 19.5 points to RBs keeps him out of the top 24.

Sit: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints, vs Carolina Panthers. His carries have remained near his season average of 6.7 a game even with Travis Etienne Jr. on Injured Reserve, so the added opportunity has not translated into a bigger workload yet. The 8.5 projection against an easy matchup allowing 25.6 points to RBs is not enough to crack the lineup this week.

Wide receivers: the line is WR36

Start: Ryan Flournoy, Dallas Cowboys, vs San Francisco 49ers. His target share has bounced between 9% and 17% over his last four games, close to his season rate of 14%, a steady role. The 9.0 projection comes against a tough matchup allowing 26.5 points to WRs, and he still clears the cutoff at WR34.

Start: Mack Hollins, New England Patriots, at Detroit Lions. His Week 9 target share of 17% matched his season average of 17%, a steady workload. The 8.5 projection against an easy matchup allowing 34.3 points to WRs is the most favorable matchup grade of any receiver here, backing the start.

Start: Caleb Douglas, Miami Dolphins, at Indianapolis Colts. His Week 9 target share of 38% jumped well above his season average of 22%, a clear sign his role is growing. The 8.5 projection against an average matchup allowing 29.1 points to WRs makes him the strongest of the three receivers tied at this number.

Sit: Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans, vs Jacksonville Jaguars. His target shares have swung widely over his last four games (23%, 32%, 14%, 43%), but his season rate of 26% is the highest of any receiver in this group. That usage argues for a start, while his 8.5 projection and rank of 37 land him just outside the line against an average matchup allowing 31.4 points to WRs — this is the closest sit call at the position.

Sit: DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills, at New York Jets. His target share has held near his season average of 18%, a steady role. The 8.5 projection against a tough matchup allowing 28.5 points to WRs keeps him outside the top 36 this week.

Sit: Dohnte Meyers, Cincinnati Bengals, vs Pittsburgh Steelers. His target share has stayed low across his last four games (11%, 6%, 7%, 6%), in line with his season rate of 9%. The 8.0 projection against an average matchup allowing 30.3 points to WRs is not enough to overcome the light workload.

Tight ends: the line is TE12

Start: Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts, vs Miami Dolphins. His target share has run as high as 56% over his last four games, above his season rate of 38%, showing a role that keeps growing. The 9.0 projection against an easy matchup allowing 17.1 points to TEs makes him the clearest start at the position.

Start: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills, at New York Jets. His Week 9 target share of 10% dipped below his season average of 17%, a small step back after a heavier Week 6. The 9.0 projection against an easy matchup allowing 15.5 points to TEs is enough to start through the dip.

Start: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots, at Detroit Lions. His target share has cooled the last two games (8%, 16%) compared with his season average of 14%, pointing toward usage that is leveling off rather than growing. That is working against an easy matchup allowing 25.7 points to TEs and an 8.0 projection that ties him exactly with Tucker Kraft one spot below him — the matchup tips this one to a start, and it is the tightest call of the week at any position.

Sit: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers, vs Minnesota Vikings. His Week 9 target share of 11% fell below his season rate of 16%, though the three weeks before that were in line or above it. His 8.0 projection matches Henry's number exactly, but a tough matchup allowing just 8.6 points to TEs — the stingiest number here — is what drops him outside the top 12.

Sit: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions, vs New England Patriots. His target share has mostly matched his season average of 18%, aside from a quiet Week 7. The 7.5 projection against a tough matchup allowing 10.4 points to TEs caps his upside this week.

Sit: Darren Waller, Carolina Panthers, at New Orleans Saints. His Week 9 target share of 27% was well above his season rate of 12%, a one-week spike after three straight games in single digits. The 7.5 projection against an easy matchup allowing 15.9 points to TEs is tempting given the matchup, but with only one game of elevated usage behind it, he stays on the bench this week.

This article was drafted with AI from Pro Football News Hub data (News Hub Fantasy projections, injury reports, depth charts and the schedule) and reviewed by our editor before publishing. Read how we use AI in our editorial standards.