A two-game winning streak runs into a one-game skid when these two 2-2 teams meet in the rain. The Indianapolis Colts have won back-to-back games, including a 30-13 rout of the Washington Commanders in Week 4, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are trying to shake off a 24-27 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET from Acrisure Stadium, with drizzle and wind in the forecast.

Game details

WhenSunday, October 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
WhereAcrisure Stadium
TVCBS
LinePittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | O/U 43.5 (market view)
Indianapolis Colts record2-2
Pittsburgh Steelers record2-2

The matchup

Indianapolis has scored 102 points and allowed 104 through four games, and the Colts have found their footing with consecutive wins over the Houston Texans and the Commanders after dropping their first two to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh has been far quieter on offense, managing just 77 points against 87 allowed, and their results have been a stop-and-start mess: a win over the Atlanta Falcons, a 3-20 blowout loss to the New England Patriots, a win over the Cincinnati Bengals, then the loss to Cleveland.

The weather is a real factor here. Drizzle, 63 degrees, 11 mile-per-hour wind and an 80 percent chance of precipitation at Acrisure Stadium points toward a grind-it-out afternoon rather than a track meet, which fits a total set at 43.5.

Key matchups

Jonathan Taylor is the engine of this Colts offense and projects for 19.0 DraftKings points, tops among every player in this game. Whatever Pittsburgh's front can do to slow him down will decide whether Daniel Jones gets to play from ahead or behind; Jones projects for 11.0 points himself, modest for a starting quarterback, which tells you Indianapolis wants Taylor carrying the load.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers projects for 14.5 points and leans on DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson, projected for 9.0 and 8.0 respectively. With Michael Pittman Jr. out, that receiving corps gets thinner, and how Jaylen Warren is used out of the backfield, he projects for 11.5, will matter if Pittsburgh needs to keep drives alive on the ground in sloppy conditions.

Injuries that matter

Indianapolis is missing Ashton Dulin (hamstring), Will Mallory (thumb) and Arden Key (hamstring), all ruled out, while Keenan Allen, Charvarius Ward and Darius Slayton carry questionable tags, with Allen and Ward listed as resting players rather than banged up. Losing Mallory at tight end and Dulin at receiver thins out the complementary pieces around Josh Downs and Tyler Warren.

Pittsburgh is dealing with its own holes. Michael Pittman Jr. is out with a foot injury, a real loss for the receiving corps, and the secondary takes hits with Jamel Dean (ankle) and DeShon Elliott (knee) both out. Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist issue, and if he's limited, that's one more problem for a Steelers defense already shorthanded in the back end against a Colts passing attack that will test it.

Fantasy angles

Jonathan Taylor is the easiest start on this entire slate at 19.0 projected points. He's the focal point of this offense and the clear bell-cow, and nothing about Pittsburgh's injury report suggests they have the horses to slow him down inside the twenty.

Aaron Rodgers at 14.5 projected points gives him a solid floor as a streaming option, especially if Pittsburgh has to throw more to keep pace. Daniel Jones at 11.0 is more matchup-dependent; lean on Taylor to do the heavy lifting and treat Jones as a two-quarterback league piece only.

DK Metcalf becomes the clear top target for Rodgers with Pittman sidelined, and that added volume at 9.0 projected points makes him a confident flex regardless of format. Jaylen Warren at 11.5 is a safe flex play too, especially with wet conditions likely to push both offenses toward the ground game.

Josh Downs at 8.5 rounds out a solid WR3 or flex option for Indianapolis if Allen ends up sitting as a healthy scratch, giving him a clearer path to targets underneath.

The pick

The market has Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 43.5, and the projected score sits at Steelers 23, Colts 21. That's close to a coin flip, but Indianapolis arrives with real momentum and the best player on the field in Jonathan Taylor, while Pittsburgh is banged up on defense and trying to snap a one-game slide in sloppy weather that should favor the run-heavy team. Give the slight edge to the Colts to make it three straight.

Injury report

PlayerTeamPosStatus
Keenan AllenIndianapolis ColtsWRQuestionable
Ashton DulinIndianapolis ColtsWROut
Will MalloryIndianapolis ColtsTEOut
Jaylon CarliesIndianapolis ColtsLBOut
Arden KeyIndianapolis ColtsDEOut
Charvarius WardIndianapolis ColtsCBQuestionable
Darius SlaytonIndianapolis ColtsWRQuestionable
Rico DowdlePittsburgh SteelersRBQuestionable
Michael Pittman Jr.Pittsburgh SteelersWROut
Jamel DeanPittsburgh SteelersCBOut
DeShon ElliottPittsburgh SteelersSOut
Jalen RamseyPittsburgh SteelersCBQuestionable

Projected starters

PosIndianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
QBDaniel JonesAaron Rodgers
RBJonathan Taylor, Seth McGowanJaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle
WRJosh Downs, Keenan Allen, Laquon TreadwellDK Metcalf, Roman Wilson, Germie Bernard
TETyler WarrenDarnell Washington

Recent results

TeamLast games
Indianapolis ColtsWk4 W 30-13 vs Washington Commanders, Wk3 W 19-17 vs Houston Texans, Wk2 L 30-33 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh SteelersWk4 L 24-27 vs Cleveland Browns, Wk3 W 30-27 vs Cincinnati Bengals, Wk2 L 3-20 vs New England Patriots

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In this story

Written by Rhett Zone, an AI analyst, from News Hub Fantasy data (schedule, scores, box scores, injuries and depth charts), and checked against that data before it published automatically. Read how we use AI in our editorial standards.