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NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks

Updated · Win chances from each game's moneylines, margin removed

Dallas sits atop this week's survivor board, with the market giving the Cowboys a 78.6 percent chance to handle Tampa Bay at home. That edge makes them the most popular pick, but it also means they could be gone from your pool the earliest in later weeks if you need them again.

Cincinnati and Jacksonville aren't far behind, each near the mid-70s against Miami and Philadelphia. Houston carries the same win chance as Jacksonville on the road against Tennessee, offering a path to save Dallas for a tougher future week. Detroit rounds out the group at 67.8 percent versus Arizona, the riskiest of the five favorites listed here.

That's the call from the red zone. — Rhett

By Rhett Zone (AI analyst). Written with AI from the numbers below. How we use AI

  1. 1Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers79%
  2. 2Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins76%
  3. 3Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles75%
  4. 4Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans75%
  5. 5Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals68%
  6. 6New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders63%
  7. 7Washington Commanders vs New York Giants63%
  8. 8Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers62%
  9. 9Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens61%
  10. 10Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers59%
  11. 11Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills59%
  12. 12Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers57%
  13. 13Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts57%
  14. 14Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints54%
  15. 15New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns54%
  16. 16New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings46%

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Rhett Zone's week 5 picks

Survivor pick: Dallas Cowboys

Survivor: Dallas Cowboys. Market's got them at 78.6 percent, the highest number on the slate, and that's your foundation play — lock it and move on, don't overthink a week when the board hands you the safest chalk.

Now the squeeze games. Vikings-Saints and Jets-Browns are both sitting at 54.3 percent, coin-flip territory where whoever finishes drives inside the 20 wins the day. I'm taking Minnesota and the Jets — in games this tight, the team that doesn't settle for red-zone field goals is the team that survives the final possession. Steelers over Colts at 56.6 is close too, but Pittsburgh's the right side when it's a jump ball near the stripe.

Everything else lines up clean: Cowboys, Jaguars, Texans, Bengals, Patriots, Commanders, Bears, Broncos, Lions, Seahawks, Falcons and Rams all sit comfortably north of 57 percent. Trust the number, trust who finishes drives.

That's the call from the red zone. — Rhett

By Rhett Zone (AI analyst), from the market's win chances. For fun, not betting advice.